How New Quarterbacks Will Impact The Fantasy Production Of Their Teammates

How New Quarterbacks Will Impact The Fantasy Production Of Their Teammates

There is no denying the fact that quarterback is the most important position in football. 

But the quality of a team’s quarterback won’t only impact that organization’s production on the field…it will also impact the potential fantasy production of the remainder of the team’s offensive weapons.

Here is a look at a handful of NFL teams who will have new starting quarterbacks this fall, and how the remainder of their offensive skill players will be impacted by their new signal caller, as well as other variables within the offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers (Russell Wilson or Justin Fields)

Regardless of which quarterback ends up under center for the Steelers (probably Wilson), there are some real causes for concern when it comes to Pittsburgh’s running backs. Arthur Smith will be in his first season as the offensive coordinator for the Steelers, which likely won’t bode well for Najee Harris or Jaylen Warren. 

While many people have been high on Warren’s potential to supplant Harris and become the star in Pittsburgh’s backfield, we must not forget that Smith is the coach that took a lot of criticism for not featuring Bijan Robinson with the Falcons last season. If history repeats itself, Harris and Warren may be splitting reps this season, which would limit both of their production. 

On the flip side, the player most likely to benefit from what should be increased production at the quarterback position is George Pickens. Pickens and Diontae Johnson were sort of 1-A and 1-B options with the Steelers last year, but Johnson has since moved on to Carolina, leaving Pickens as the unquestioned No. 1 at receiver. Look for Pickens to have a breakout year and finish as a top 20 WR in fantasy. 

Atlanta Falcons (Kirk Cousins)

All things considered, Cousins’ presence in Atlanta should not have much of an impact on the way that we are viewing the remainder of the offensive weapons.

Barring injury, Bijan Robsinson is primed and ready to have a breakout year out of the backfield, and he is unquestionably somebody who is worthy of a top pick in fantasy.

Tight ends who have played with Cousins have typically fared pretty well in fantasy, which means that this may finally be the year that Kyle Pitts puts up the numbers that people have been expecting. Although you will still need to be mindful of not overreaching, Pitts definitely has the potential to put together his best season as a pro by a considerable margin. We also shouldn’t forget that Pitts shared a lot of the tight end production with Jonnu Smith in 2023. With Smith now in Miami, Pitts should get even more opportunities in the passing game.

At receiver, it is business as usual for the Falcons. Drake London is a solid option for fantasy, but there aren’t any other big names that we are excited about for the 2024 campaign. Bear in mind, though, that Cousins does provide a significant upgrade at the quarterback position, meaning that there should be more production out of the Falcons’ passing game as a whole.

Las Vegas Raiders (Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew)

Technically O’Connell was the Raiders’ starting quarterback to finish last season, but this will still be a transitional year for the organization as it moves away from Derek Carr. 

Interestingly enough, many experts have been high on many of Oakland’s offensive weapons, including Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, and Zamir White. It seems like the general thought is that the Raiders will likely be one of the worst teams in the league this year, so they will likely need to throw the ball a lot since they will be behind in games.

However, you should be cautious about buying into that narrative. Over the past ten seasons, there have only been four receivers who played for a bottom five offense who have finished as a WR2 or better. History simply shows that you should hesitate drafting receivers from really bad offenses in hopes that they will produce big stats.

Of the Raiders’ offensive weapons, the one that appears to have the best fantasy value right now is Zamir White. He will be the featured guy in the backfield, and he did a very good job filling in for Josh Jacobs late last season. But if the offense is not scoring touchdowns, White’s fantasy production could still be stunted, so make sure that you are taking a potential lack of touchdowns into consideration if you draft him.

Teams With Rookie Quarterbacks (Bears, Commanders, Patriots, Vikings, Denver)

After C.J. Stroud had a monster rookie season for the Texans last season, should we expect to see the same out of any of this year’s batch of first-year signal callers?

I wouldn’t count on it.

Over the last ten seasons, 29 different rookie quarterbacks have started week one for their team. Only 14 receivers attached to those 29 quarterbacks have finished as a top 30 fantasy option, and only five finished as a top 20 option. 

Though there is reason for optimism concerning the future for each of these teams, you should pause in a major way when considering drafting receivers from any of these teams with any pick towards the top of your draft.