Mike Williams Fantasy Forecast


Mike Williams was my favorite fantasy draft target last year. I had him ranked significantly ahead of his ADP, and expected him and the Chargers offense to break out. In fact, I had Mike Williams on every single one of my fantasy teams. Williams proved me right as he had by far his best season in the NFL. He posted career highs in targets, receptions and yards, and finished as the WR 12 in fantasy. In addition to having a statistically great season, on the field Williams became more than just a deep threat, showing a more complete game and was 5th in the NFL in route wins.


To reward his breakout season, the Chargers gave Williams a 3 year $60 million contract. With their financial investment, the Chargers clearly don't believe last season was a fluke for Williams and neither do I. The two main areas Williams can improve in this season are touchdown efficiency and week to week consistency. Despite catching 9 TDs last year, Williams was a very unlucky player when it came to red zone efficiency. He ranked 8th in the NFL in red zone targets, but only finished with 5 red zone TDs. Comparably, Mike Evans and DK Metcalf, who are both similar in size and skill to Williams, both had 3 less red zone targets than Williams, but scored 10 and 9 red zone touchdowns. It would not surprise me at all if Williams finished this season with 12 or 13 touchdowns. In addition, Williams will demand a higher target share and become more consistent week to week this year because he earned the trust of Justin Herbert as the season went on last year. In week 17, with the playoffs on the line, Herbert targeted Williams 17 times, 5th most for any player in a single game last year. But Herbert wasn't just throwing him worthless easy completions. Compared to the receivers ahead of him on that list, Williams had a much higher yards per reception mark in that game. This year I believe the Chargers will have the best offense in the NFL, and Williams will be the most valuable fantasy receiver on their team.

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