Patrick Mahomes 2022 Fantasy Forecast

In his first 4 years as a starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes has cemented himself as one of the best, if not the best, in the league. For fantasy he has finished as the 1st, 6th, 3rd and 4th highest scoring QB each season. However fantasy managers are hesitant when it comes to Mahomes in 2022.

Despite putting up good fantasy numbers last year, Mahomes had, by far, his most inefficient season averaging just 7.4 yards per attempt and 7.6 average depth per throw. To make matters worse, during the offseason the Chiefs traded away star wide receiver Tyreek Hill who accounted for over 26% of Mahomes career fantasy points. In addition, the Chiefs also lost depth with wide receivers Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson in free agency.

To combat these losses the Chiefs signed both JuJu Smith-Schuster to be a safety blanket in the slot for Mahomes and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to be a big body deep threat. The Chiefs also drafted rookie Skyy Moore in the second round of the NFL draft. Last year at Western Michigan Moore finished 3rd in the nation in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades and ran a 4.41 40 yard dash at the NFL combine. These new weapons, in addition to star tight end Travis Kelce and speedy receiver Mecole Hardman, will try to make up for Hill's departure.

Luckily for Mahomes, in the four games he has played without Tyreek Hill, his production did not take a step back. During those four games he averaged 378 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game. The Chiefs have more than enough weapons around Mahomes for Andy Reid to scheme up ways for the offense to be successful. While he may not have the upside of finishing as the QB 1 without Hill, it is very unlikely that Mahomes will finish outside the top 5 fantasy QBs in 2022.