As you prepare for your fantasy draft, here are three hyped players that you should avoid targeting at their current ADP (average draft position).
1. J.K. Dobbins
How many years in a row are we going to tell ourselves that Dobbins is going to be healthy and effective? The reality is that he has not been practicing in training camp, and the Ravens just signed Melvin Gordon cause they know his health is a concern. Even if Dobbins is on the field, Baltimore is not going to run the ball early as much as they have in the past. That also does not bode well for Dobbins, as he isn’t much of a pass catcher. I think a pretty common statline for Dobbins is going to be 12 carries for 60 yards and a reception, which will only give you seven or eight fantasy points. If you draft him, you are pretty much betting on him to score double-digit touchdowns this season to be effective. That is not the type of bet I want to make with my RB2.
2. Deebo Samuel
Let's look at Deebo Samuel’s four years in the NFL. In year one, he averaged 64 yards per game and scored six touchdowns. His second year, he put up 59 yards per game and one touchdown. Year three was his best season to date, as he averaged 110 yards per game and tallied 14 touchdowns. Last season, Samuel averaged 66 yards per game and scored five touchdowns. One of those seems to be a pretty big outlier, yet many fantasy managers act like it is the norm for Samuel. The reality is that he is not the No. 1 receiver in this offense. Brandon Aiyuk is clearly the first option at receiver for the 49ers, and Samuel seems to always be struggling with nagging injuries. If you are going to take a San Francisco receiver, Aiyuk should be your guy.
3. Saquon Barkley
I think the Giants are going to be worse in 2023, and that does not project well for Barkley when it comes to fantasy. Over the first half of the 2022 season, Barkley was given 26 opportunities per game as New Yoprk jumped out to a 7-2 record. Over the back half of the season, however, Barkley only averaged 19.5 opportunities per game as the team went 2-5-1 down the stretch. If he is getting less touches, and the Giants pass the ball around the goaline more now that Darren Waller and other options are there, I don’t see Barkley finishing as a top five running back. Sure, at the end of the season he might be the RB 9 or 10, but you aren’t going to feel good if you took him as the fourth running back off the board, over guys like Tony Pollard, Bijan Robinson, or Nick Chubb, who should all end up finishing higher.